By the late 1970’s, China’s agrarian, communistic style of production was failing. Mao died in 1976 and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was beginning to consider a new approach to their economy. Deng Xiaoping became leader in 1978 and ushered in a new era of far-reaching, free-market economy reforms. He became known as the “modern architect of China” where he combined socialist ideology with free enterprise and dubbed it “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” This would launch a 20 year modernization project under his rule that catapulted China onto the world stage. In 2010, China surpassed Japan as the 2nd largest economy in the world. The race was now on between the United States and China for global hegemonic supremacy. Would this new dynamic emerging in the mid 2000’s present a challenge to the US, much the same as the USSR did (in theory), or would China be able to carve out a section of the world for themselves in relative peace? Well, the answer lies somewhere in between actually. My objective in this piece is to provide the contextual background for which the Belt & Road Initiative was created. The late 1970’s provided an inflection point where China would launch into a new era of globalized capital and leave Maoism behind. With China becoming an emerging superpower, they needed a global development strategy to spread their influence, make new allies and shore up supply chains. That’s where the Belt & Road Initiative comes into play.
In 2013, Xi Jinping announced the development plan for the first time. The “Belt” refers to the overland routes that China hoped to build for road and rail transportation (some routes already having been constructed). The “road” refers to the sea routes or as China refers to it as the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road.” Xi announced that this would be a project that takes about 40 years. It’s expected to be completed by 2049, which would mark the one hundred year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. It’s an ambitious project and one that has multiple tentacles, designed to integrate different communities around the world. One goal is connectivity. The aim here being a sort of cultural exchange between the host country and the Chinese. This would be done to create new capital inflows. It is accomplished through infrastructure investment in (largely in Africa as I will explain later), education, construction materials, railway and highway development, auto, power grids, steel and real estate. This branching out allows Chinese laborers and technicians to consult on large state-funded projects using their Exim Bank (Export-Import Bank). Estimates now say that the initiative is the largest infrastructure and investment project in world history, covering more than 70 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of the world’s GDP. This broad scope does however give away the game a bit. Some historians and political science experts consider this initiative to be modeled after Halford Mackinder’s “heartland theory.” This geopolitical analysis states that if you could control the “world island”, you would control the largest, most populous and richest land combinations. Therefore, you would essentially be the sole hegemonic power in the world. While most of the earth is covered by sea, it’s the land routes that are most important strategically, since that is where the population masses are. In theory, it makes sense and Washington has adhered to this geopolitical analysis as well. After WWII, Washington controlled the western Pacific regions and arguably 60% of the world’s GDP. Since then, that control has shrunk and many can see that America is on its downward decline as an empire. By investing billions into this project, China exhibits that they are not hiding their intent to gain a larger share of the world’s GDP.
Now we must get into the infrastructure networks that are key to the success of the Belt & Road Initiative. The overland objectives are to modernize and improve the physical infrastructure that equate to those of the old Silk Road. This will cost an estimated $4-6 trillion to complete. One section of the initiative deals with Russia and reconstituting their oil pipelines to flow to China and to the Indian Ocean. Another section is called the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a $62 billion project that aims to modernize Pakistan’s energy infrastructure, transportation networks and economy. Gwadar Port serves as the center piece of this ambitious project. It’s a port city in the remote southwest corner of Pakistan, that provides easy shipping lanes to not only the Gulf states but the entire Indian Ocean basin. It’s essential for CPEC to succeed. It’s the only modern port Pakistan has and it’s also the shallowest sea port in the world, making it perfect for trade. This part of the initiative is largely complete, with Chinese companies now operating in Gwadar Port and transporting Russian oil along with steel. It is also the largest project under the initiative. Pakistan is the country that China chose to invest the most in. $31.9 billion has been invested into Pakistan, with Nigeria in 2nd place at $23 billion. It’s become clear why, since Pakistan not only provides a friendly government that has always engaged in trade with China, but they have access to the Indian Ocean and the Gulf States oil region that is a key target for anyone trying to control the global shipment of oil.
Another overland objective is named the “Ice Silk Road.” This refers to the overland project that will be a joint-project between Russia and China, the goal of which is to modernize the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic. It is no doubt designed to cut out Washington and find a way to streamline Russian oil extraction from the Arctic and repatriate the funds through Chinese controlled markets. Russian oil giants, Gazprom and Lukoil sent representatives to China to iron out the details and they came to an agreement in 2018. The project is expected to be finished by 2030.
The last overland objective is perhaps the most ambitious but is the key to Mackinder’s heartland theory, and that is African investment. China correctly identified Africa as the best investment opportunity and one of the safest. This is largely due to two main reasons. First, Africa is rich in natural resources still to this day after a century of colonial exploitation. Second, it has largely corrupt, unstable governments that are vulnerable to high-cost loans from foreign countries. As of 2020, 42 countries have signed onto the initiative. African infrastructure has been needed to be modernized for a long time. Multinational corporations have long since promised to build infrastructure in exchange for their no bid contracts to operate on the continent, but it’s always been a lie. 40% of Africans currently live without electricity, 33% without paved roads and only 5% of agricultural land has been irrigated. Naturally China began their African investment in East Africa where they could build railways and roads, as well as have uninterrupted access to the ports. One example of a completed project is the Maputo-Katembe bridge in Maputo, Mozambique. This bridge only took one year to build and was financed by loans from the Chinese Exim Bank. Since 2014, China has spent $6 billion just in East African development in Mozambique, Kenya and Djibouti. Speaking of Djibouti, it serves as the centerpiece and crown jewel of China’s development plan for Africa.
Djibouti is not often referenced. It’s a small, underdeveloped and mostly arid country on the Horn of Africa along the Red Sea coast. This country serves as the centerpiece of the juggling effort between China’s economic and military expansion. Djibouti’s port and two international airports were built with funding from the Chinese Exim Bank, much like the projects in Mozambique and Kenya. 40% of Djibouti’s recent infrastructure has been built by the Chinese. There is no doubt that Washington sees China's motives in Djibouti as especially hostile. This is due to the fact that the US operates a base in Djibouti named, Camp Lemmonier. This forward operating base (FOB) is one of many throughout Africa. It serves as a drone launching point for the Middle East region and it keeps an eye on terrorist activities in Somalia and Yemen. By investing in Djibouti, the CCP is telling Washington, that they have arrived and plan to stay awhile. Some see this extension of the Belt & Road Initiative as a direct attempt to undermine American FOBs in Africa. It goes like this. China invests in infrastructure, thus indebting African nations and re-orienting them into their economic orbit. Washington answers this by building more FOBs in the region and extending their military influence through threat of force. Plus, Washington is well aware of China’s real intent in the region. Yes, indebting African nations is a key strategy but controlling ports along the East African coast for China’s Naval expansion, is the most important. These are two wildly different approaches to African continental domination, with ultimately different goals in mind.
Kenya and Ethiopia’s investment is less important. Not for any strategic reason other than the fact that they are landlocked and provide less economic value for China. Ethiopia’s eastern industrial zone (EIZ) was built with Chinese loans and a railway now links Addis Ababa with the coast in Djibouti. A trip that once took three days now takes only twelves hours. In Kenya, the Mombasa-Nairobi standard gauge railway was built to serve the two economic centers of Kenya and one again, create a new economic zone at the port city of Mombasa. African traders have long used Mombasa to connect with Arabs who inhabit the coastal regions there and the island of Zanzibar. While many projects are still underway in this region, the poor development in the hinterlands, has made it harder for China to really make an impact with their projects. Economic output has not increased dramatically since the projects started in 2014, but the CCP remains hopeful for the future.
Last but not least, Nigeria has seen the most money spent from Chinese investors. The Abuja-Kaduna standard railway line is one of the first modernization projects in Nigeria’s history. There has long been an inland transportation issue in Nigeria. Offshore oil platforms dot the Nigerian Delta coast. However, no modern railways has been able to efficiently transport materials inland. Foreign countries and their multinationals have ravaged the Delta over the last three decades and now China’s investment projects provide hope that the multinationals can be circumvented in some way. This counterbalance exists because of the multitude of objectives in the region. Royal Dutch Shell would like their extraction uninterrupted and China would like to one day control the Nigerian Delta, which has some of the easiest oil to extract in the world. For some icing on the cake, in 2019, China promised to provide satellite television to 10,000 African villages. 2,000 villages were selected in Nigeria because they are the most populous country in Africa. By providing this technical assistance, China also hopes to build solar panels and create access to broadband internet in these same villages. While this side-project is ambitious to say the least, it shows the depths that the CCP is willing to go to win over particularly the younger minds throughout Africa. Economic cooperation is key and China hopes that Nigeria’s political instability in the north, will not effect their investments. The Muslim terrorists of Boko Haram, have ravaged the north and have even crossed over into Cameroon, but have no intention or even ability to attack the Delta region, yet. For the time being, Chinese investments in Nigeria continue to skyrocket as in 2019 alone, they spent $7 billion. By 2030, they expect to spend about $45 billion. It’s clear that Nigeria and Djibouti will be the centerpieces of China’s investment in Africa for a long time to come.
So has the Belt & Road Initiative been a success? Well, it’s been a mixed bag. China is only seven years into the development project and they have already seen gains from it. Countries like Kenya, Djibouti and Nigeria are already re-orienting their economics away from the hegemonic control of Washington and Western Europe. It’s become abundantly clear that Washington cannot rival China’s foreign influence anymore. While Washington has spent the last twenty years starting bombing campaigns and wasting trillions in Iraq and Afghanistan, they have been no better for it. Iranian influence in the Middle East grows everyday, and Washington’s heavy-handed approach has turned off more countries then it has turned on. China’s heavy investment in Africa, creates a future problem for Washington. Their further expansion into the South China Sea may be even more alarming for neoconservatives in Washington. Even the Philippines, a long time base of operations for the American Navy and ally of Washington, is now leaving Washington’s orbit, possibly for good. Rodrigo Duterte is the current president of the Philippines and is an authoritarian by nature. He was turned off by the Trump administration’s criticism of how he handles criminal justice in his country and he didn’t take that likely. He ended military cooperation with the US in 2019 and has since engaged in economic trade talks with China. This brazenness by a third-world American puppet state is shocking. Even in the global context of today, it’s still shocking because it shows the weakness of Washington’s soft power influence. Maybe Duterte is reading the tea leaves or maybe he’s just making a blind gamble. Either way, it has become clear that China is reorganizing the world order slowly but surely. While alarmists always point to nuclear war as the ultimate situation to avoid, the more dire emergency for Washington is how to slow down Chinese growth. This will not be easy unless China’s birth rate declines (and there is no evidence of that.) The markets are responding as well.
This recent pandemic has highlighted America’s need to fix their supply chains. While most of the American manufacturing is done abroad in countries like China, the supply chains have been completely entangled with private capital. While China has been able to mobilize their population and mitigate this virus, Americans have had to suffer from a lack of preparedness, mask and ventilator production and gross mismanagement from the federal level. It shows America’s weakness to not just a global pandemic, but also a futuristic hypothetical bioweapons attack. By not having a strategic reserve of personal protective equipment (PPE) built up, Americans have been left vulnerable to these frightening scenarios. As we enter into this new decade, it will be interesting to keep an eye on who emerges in better shape. There’s no doubt that China’s Belt & Road Initiative has taken a hit from this pandemic. Much of the world is on economic standby, but when normalcy eventually resumes, many experts expect China to close the gap even more and ramp up spending on their overland objectives. As they continue to gain a larger share of technological patents and control more of the world’s manufacturing and share of GDP, this can only create an imbalance that could fracture the bi-polar world as we know it. It could create a tri-polar world between Russia, the US and China. Or it could leave China as the sole hegemonic power. We will just have to wait and see what happens.
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